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资料：FAST cars whizz around，malls are full of expensive luxuries and cranes dominate the skyline.But scratch the shimmering surface of the Gulf and you soon find countries hurting from the low oil price，currently around $40 a barrel.Growth is slowing and unemployment is rising.Policy makers even dare utter a three-letter“t” word until recently taboo：tax.

Oil is central to the six Gulf Co-operation Council （GCC） states，which have used the windfall of the past few years to spend lavishly.Unlike many oil exporters，such as Nigeria and Venezuela，they have high foreign-exchange reserves and low debts to cover short-term gaps.But public spending is generous and the private sector is heavily reliant on oil to boot.To be sustainable in an era of lower prices.the rulers must change the structure of their economies.

The IMF reckons the lower oil price knocked $340 billion off Arab oil-exporting states’ government revenues in 2015.This year is looking worse.Moody’s，a ratings agency，this month downgraded Bahrain and Oman and put on watch the other four GCC states： Saudi Arabia，Kuwait，the United Arab Emirates （UAE） and Qatar.“It’s the end of an era for the Gulf，”says Razan Nasser of HSBC in Dubai.“And we’re only just starting to see the effects.”

Oil receipts typically account for more than 80% of GCC government revenues，rising to over90% of Saudi Arabia’s budget before the crisis.Dubai，one of the emirates making up the UAE，is an exception，with oil accounting for only 5% of revenues.That is because it has successfully diversified tourism and services account for most of its government revenues.

Governments are reacting to the squeeze on their incomes with a mixture of strategies，drawing down reserves and taking on debt on the one hand，and imposing spending cuts on the other.Last year they made tweaks，such as curbing benefits for public servants.This year will be tougher.Oman has told all state-owned enterprises to remove perks such as cars.Qatari companies including Al Jazeera and the Qatar Foundation，a cultural organization，have laid off employees.With such tweaks, Kuwait，the UAE and Qatar，which have small populations and high foreign exchange reserves，can get by for a decade.

Which deduction may NOT be true？

A.Dubai used to heavily rely on oil revenue
B.Gulf States used to be promising
C.The author criticizes GCC’s conventional economic pattern
D.Oil price doesn’t influence Dubai’s economy

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答案： A

本题解析：

本题考查的是推理判断。

【关键词】deduction；Not true

【主题句】第2自然段Oil is central to the six Gulf Co-operation Council （GCC） states，which have used the windfall of t；he past few years to spend lavishly.石油是六个海湾合作委员会（海合会）国家的核心，这些国家利用过去几年的意外之财大肆消费。

第2自然段But public spending is generous and the private sector is heavily reliant on oil to boot.To be sustainable in an era of lower prices.the rulers must change the structure of their economies.但是，公共支出是巨大的，私营部门严重依赖石油业发展。为了能够在价格较低的时代可持续发展，统治者必须改变其经济结构。

第4自然段Dubai，one of the emirates making up the UAE，is an exception，with oil accounting for only 5% of revenues.That is because it has successfully diversified tourism and services account for most of its government revenues.作为阿拉伯联合酋长国的成员之一迪拜，则是一个例外，石油收入只占总收入的5％，主要是由于它成功地使旅游和服务多元化，从而占据其政府收入的大部分。

【解析】本题的问题是“哪项推理不正确？”A选项“迪拜曾经严重依赖石油收入”；B选项“海湾合作委员会国家过去充满了前景”；C选项“作者批评了海湾合作委员会的传统经济模式”；D选项“油价不会影响迪拜的经济”。根据主题句，迪拜主要收入来自于旅游和服务，石油收入仅占5%，并不依赖石油收入，因而经济不会受到油价影响，A选项错误，D选项正确；海湾合作委员会国家过去几年大发意外之财，B选项正确；作者认为，海湾合作委员会国家严重依赖石油业，要实现可持续发展，必须进行经济模式调整，C选项正确。本题为选非题，故选A。